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February 2015 Contract
Recovery efforts failed to materialize on Thursday/Friday with stalls back from the 51.84/91 area to aim back lower this week, through mid-January and potentially for the month.
Another new cycle low Friday having last week surrendered the 78.6% retrace of the entire 2009-14 bull rally at 50.75 and the psychological/ option target at 50.00 to reinforce bearish pressures.
Short-term Outlook - Downside Risks: The threat for January is now to the significant 2010 lows at 45.61 and 43.47.
What Changes This? Above 55.84 eases bear risks; through 58.54 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 63.70.
- We see a downside bias for 48.90; break here aims for 47.05/00, maybe closer to 45.61.
- But above 51.44 aims through 51.84/91 and opens risk up to 52.80, maybe 53.60, which we would look to try to cap.
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