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Brent Crude Future Rare Bounce Risk; But January Bear Pressures Intact

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Brent Crude Future Rare Bounce Risk; But January Bear Pressures Intact

To view the full ICE Brent Crude Future report with screencasts, click here

February 2015 Contract

Yet another push lower Wednesday as anticipated through the 78.6% retrace of the entire 2009-14 bull rally at 50.75 and the psychological/ option target at 50.00 to reinforce bearish pressures to aim still lower for mid-January and for the month.

The end of year plunge lower and further erosion to start 2015 from a bearish outside Friday pattern through notable 2010 weekly swing lows at 55.61 and 54.29 also highlights bear risks.

Short-term Outlook - Downside Risks: The threat for January is now to the significant 2010 lows at 45.61 and 43.47.

What Changes This? Above 55.84 eases bear risks; through 58.54 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 63.70.

For Today:

  • A rare day for a bullish tone, but we see an upside bias through 51.84/91; break here aims for 52.80, maybe 53.60, which we would look to try to cap.
  • But below 50.24 opens risk down to through 49.66 for 48.10, maybe closer to 45.61.

Weekly ICE Brent Crude Future (Feb 2015 contract)

b2ap3_thumbnail_brent1_20150108-070437_1.png

2 Hour ICE Brent Crude Future (Feb 2015 contract)

b2ap3_thumbnail_brent2_20150108-070456_1.png

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Tagged in: Brent Crude FUTURES ICE Oil

Steve Miley is The Market Chartist and has over two decades of financial market experience with him. He spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the FX Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and was previously at Merrill Lynch for 15 years; 10 years as a technical analyst, 5 years in Fixed Income sales.


He was 2013 winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy, Runner Up for the same award in 2014 and was the winner of Best FX Research & Strategy 2012 (at Credit Suisse).


Steve is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.


Steve has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, G10 & EM currencies, Equity Indices & Sectors and Commodities and has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum, including Central Banks, Real Money accounts, Hedge Funds and other Global Corporates.

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