European benchmark bear trend extension risk
· We have stressed in our client reports all week that “we still see risk to the critical 2012-14 trend line, at 3023 for this week, with the 38.2% retrace of the up leg from mid-2013 and April swing low at 3006/05”.
· The better push through the trend line on Thursday has allowed for a break below the next key 3006/05 props.
· This signals a far more bearish tone and leaves risk into mid-August to 2973, 2962 and 2928 targets.
· Overshoot risk is to the 50% retrace of the up leg from mid-2013 at 2907 and then the key March low at 2896 through mid-month.
WHAT CHANGES THIS?
· Above 3062/64 eases bear risks; through 3096/99 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 3213.
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