A dip as anticipated Monday after the Friday intraday setback, but a resilient bounce from out flagged support at 3044, to see a quick renewal of upside pressures with a new recovery high.
The surge Thursday through the 3307 cycle high reinforced the bullish outside Wednesday pattern and an extension higher Friday to hit Fibo targets at 3377 and 3403 to leave risk higher for latter January.
Short-term Outlook - Upside Risks:
- We see a more positive tone with the bullish threat to monthly chart levels from 2008 at 3438 and 3474.
- Mid-Q1 overshoot risk is higher to the 61.8% retrace of the entire 2007-09 bear market at 3520!!
Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum is rising and has scope to go still higher for the next week. Weekly and monthly momentum are also supportive.
What Changes This? Below 3257 eases bull risks; through 3206 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 3126
- We see an upside bias for 3438; break here aims for 3458, maybe 3474.
- But below 3383 opens risk down to 3346/44, which we would look to try to hold.
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