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EURUSD aims for multi-year, 2005 low at 1.1641!

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EURUSD aims for multi-year, 2005 low at 1.1641!

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EURUSD aims for multi-year, 2005 low at 1.1641!

A break to another new setback low to reject the basing effort and despite the bounce, resistance has capped at 1.1830/41 with firm barrier at 1.1872 and 1.1897.

The setback this week leaves negative pressures intact for further erosion through mid-month and for January.

The prior plunge through 1.1876, the 2010 low reinforced previous negative pressures from last Friday through the 2012 low at 1.2042, that in turn enhanced the December breach of the key neckline supports from 2010 and 2005 (see the Monthly chart).

Short-term Outlook - Downside Risks:

  • We see downside bias for the 2005 low at 1.1641 into mid-January.
  • For latter January the threat is to a monthly low from 2003. 
  • For Q1, the risk is now maybe as low as the 61.8% retrace of the entire 2000-2008 rally at 1.1210!!

Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum is OS, but we still see scope to go lower this week. Momentum is confirming the new lows.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for the new 1.1728 low and then 1.1700. Threat is then to the 2005 low at 1.1641
  • But above 1.1830/41 opens risk up to 1.1872 and maybe 1.1897, which we would look to cap.

Monthly EURUSD





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Steve Miley is The Market Chartist and has over two decades of financial market experience with him. He spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the FX Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and was previously at Merrill Lynch for 15 years; 10 years as a technical analyst, 5 years in Fixed Income sales.

He was 2013 winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy, Runner Up for the same award in 2014 and was the winner of Best FX Research & Strategy 2012 (at Credit Suisse).

Steve is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.

Steve has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, G10 & EM currencies, Equity Indices & Sectors and Commodities and has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum, including Central Banks, Real Money accounts, Hedge Funds and other Global Corporates.



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