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EURUSD bear pressures re-energizing

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EURUSD bear pressures re-energizing

A mid-December bullish recovery failure back from ahead of chart resistance at 1.2600 set up a bearish extension to a new cycle low through the holiday season to maintain negative pressures for early January.

Moreover, the early 2015 plunge on Friday pushed through not just the 2012 low at 1.2042. but also reinforced the December breach of the key neckline supports from 2010 and 2005 (see the Monthly chart).

This morning's plunge through the psychological/ option target at 1.2000 has hit a next notable target at 1.1876, the 2010 low.

Short-term Outlook - Downside Risks:

  • Below the new low at 1.1861 targets the 2005 low at 1.1641 into January.
  • For Q1, the risk is now maybe as low as the 61.8% retrace of the entire 2000-2008 rally at 1.1210!!

Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum is OS, but we still see scope to go lower this week. Momentum is confirming the new low.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1861, with threat to 1.1805/00.
  • But above 1.1977 aims for 1.2005 and opens risk up to 1.2035, which we would look to try to cap.

Monthly EURUSD Chart


EURUSD Hour Chart



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Tagged in: Euro EURUSD Forex FX USD

Steve Miley is The Market Chartist and has over two decades of financial market experience with him. He spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the FX Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and was previously at Merrill Lynch for 15 years; 10 years as a technical analyst, 5 years in Fixed Income sales.

He was 2013 winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy, Runner Up for the same award in 2014 and was the winner of Best FX Research & Strategy 2012 (at Credit Suisse).

Steve is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.

Steve has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, G10 & EM currencies, Equity Indices & Sectors and Commodities and has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum, including Central Banks, Real Money accounts, Hedge Funds and other Global Corporates.



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