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EURUSD bearish extension threat

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EURUSD bearish extension threat

To view the full EURUSD report with screencasts, click here

A new setback low Wednesday leaves bias for further erosion for today, this week and for January.

The Monday plunge through the psychological/ option target at 1.2000 and a target at 1.1876, the 2010 low set a still more negative tone.

This price action reinforced negative pressures from the Friday through the 2012 low at 1.2042, that in turn reinforced the December breach of the key neckline supports from 2010 and 2005 (see the Monthly chart).

Short-term Outlook - Downside Risks:

  • We see downside bias for the 2005 low at 1.1641 into mid-January.
  • For Q1, the risk is now maybe as low as the 61.8% retrace of the entire 2000-2008 rally at 1.1210!!

Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum is OS, but we still see scope to go lower this week. Momentum is confirming the new lows.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias through 1.1802/00, with threat to 1.1760, maybe 1.1700.
  • But only above 1.1897 target 1.1957/77/90, which we would look to try to cap.

 Monthly EURUSD


 3 Hour EURUSD




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Tagged in: Euro EURUSD Forex FX USD

Steve Miley is The Market Chartist and has over two decades of financial market experience with him. He spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the FX Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and was previously at Merrill Lynch for 15 years; 10 years as a technical analyst, 5 years in Fixed Income sales.

He was 2013 winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy, Runner Up for the same award in 2014 and was the winner of Best FX Research & Strategy 2012 (at Credit Suisse).

Steve is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.

Steve has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, G10 & EM currencies, Equity Indices & Sectors and Commodities and has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum, including Central Banks, Real Money accounts, Hedge Funds and other Global Corporates.



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Holiday and cessation of service: 7th-23rd August 2017

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The last report will be on Friday 4th August, with service resuming on Thursday 24th August.We wish you successful trading in our absence