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EURUSD Bounce, but Bear Bias Intact

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EURUSD Bounce, but Bear Bias Intact

An erratic Wednesday and better rebound tone post-ECB leaves a neutral range theme into Thursday (but a downside correction bias).

The plunge last week through trend line, neckline and chart support at 1.0713 leaves a more bearish theme into April.

For Today: We see a neutral tone between 1.0747 and 1.0571/59 (but with a negative bias)

Break above 1.0747 aims for 1.0789, maybe 1.0840, which we would look to try to cap.

Break below 1.0665 targets 1.0559 and aims through 1.0521 for 1.0495, maybe even the cycle low at 1.0462, which we would look to try to hold.

Short-/Intermediate-term Outlook - Downside Risks:

Into April we see bias for a further for a retest of the March 1.0462 March cycle low.

As we have stated since last year, for 2015 (Q2?), the threat is to PARITY and just below here, .9900, the 78.6% retrace of the entire 2000-2008 bull rally.

Overshoot risk for Q2 is now lower to the .9609 swing low from 2002.

What Changes This? Through 1.1053 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.1249. 

A taster of the report above. To view the full EURUSD report with screencasts, levels and more, click here
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4 Hour EURUSD Chart


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Tagged in: EUR Euro EURUSD Forex FX

Steve Miley is The Market Chartist and has over two decades of financial market experience with him. He spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the FX Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and was previously at Merrill Lynch for 15 years; 10 years as a technical analyst, 5 years in Fixed Income sales.

He was 2013 winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy, Runner Up for the same award in 2014 and was the winner of Best FX Research & Strategy 2012 (at Credit Suisse).

Steve is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.

Steve has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, G10 & EM currencies, Equity Indices & Sectors and Commodities and has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum, including Central Banks, Real Money accounts, Hedge Funds and other Global Corporates.



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