An erratic Wednesday and better rebound tone post-ECB leaves a neutral range theme into Thursday (but a downside correction bias).
The plunge last week through trend line, neckline and chart support at 1.0713 leaves a more bearish theme into April.
For Today: We see a neutral tone between 1.0747 and 1.0571/59 (but with a negative bias)
Break above 1.0747 aims for 1.0789, maybe 1.0840, which we would look to try to cap.
Break below 1.0665 targets 1.0559 and aims through 1.0521 for 1.0495, maybe even the cycle low at 1.0462, which we would look to try to hold.
Short-/Intermediate-term Outlook - Downside Risks:
Into April we see bias for a further for a retest of the March 1.0462 March cycle low.
As we have stated since last year, for 2015 (Q2?), the threat is to PARITY and just below here, .9900, the 78.6% retrace of the entire 2000-2008 bull rally.
Overshoot risk for Q2 is now lower to the .9609 swing low from 2002.
What Changes This? Through 1.1053 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.1249.
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4 Hour EURUSD Chart