Despite a bounce effort through 1.0585, we looked for 1.0635 to cap Monday and the stall ahead of here, maintains the short-intermediate term bear theme.
Another new cycle low to end the week,after the previous breach of 1.0503, the March 2003 swing low, having only recently surrendered the September 2003 key swing low at 1.0765, sees further bearish risk into March.
Short-term - Downside Risks:
- As we have stated since last year, for 2015 (March?), the threat is to PARITY and just below here, .9900, the 78.6% retrace of the entire 2000-2008 bull rally.
- We see a downside bias for 1.0495 and 1.0462; break here aims for 1.0405, maybe 1.0375.
- But above 1.0635 (which we still look to cap) aims for 1.0684, maybe 1.0717, which we would then look to cap.
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Monthly EURUSD Chart