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EURUSD threat to key monthly low from 2003 at 1.1381

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EURUSD threat to key monthly low from 2003 at 1.1381

A head fake bounce through minor resistance at 1.1639/50, but a stall ahead of trend line resistance, now 1.1705 to leaves risk for a roll back lower to the basing range and to leave a negative bias for latter January.

The push to yet another new setback low Friday reinforced the break Thursday below the 2005 low at 1.1641 that pushed EURUSD to its lowest level in 11 years!!

This has fully rejected the prior basing effort from last week and reinforces bigger picture bearish pressures from the prior plunge through 1.1876, the 2010 low and previously through the 2012 low at 1.2042, that in turn enhanced the December breach of the key neckline supports from 2010 and 2005 (see the Monthly chart).

Short-term Outlook - Downside Risks:

  • For latter January the threat is to a monthly low from 2003 at 1.1381
  • For Q1, the risk is now to the 61.8% retrace of the entire 2000-2008 rally at 1.1210!!

Longer-term Outlook - Downside Risks:

  • For Q1, overshoot risk is maybe as low as the September 2003 key swing low at 1.0765.
  • For 2015, the threat is to PARITY and just below, .9900, the 78.6% retrace of the entire 2000-2008 bull rally.

Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum has corrected from OS and leaves scope to go lower this week.

What Changes This? Above 1.1787 eases bear risks; through 1.1872 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.2121. 

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias through 1.1540 for the recent 1.1460 low; violation would aim for key 1.1381.
  • But above 1.1680 opens risk up to the trend line (1.1705), which we would look to cap. Break targets 1.1787

 

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 Monthly EURUSD Chart

b2ap3_thumbnail_EURUSD1_20150122-065040_1.png

 2 Hour EURUSD Chart

b2ap3_thumbnail_EURUSD2_20150122-065044_1.png

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Tagged in: ECB Euro EURUSD Forex FX

Steve Miley is The Market Chartist and has over two decades of financial market experience with him. He spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the FX Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and was previously at Merrill Lynch for 15 years; 10 years as a technical analyst, 5 years in Fixed Income sales.


He was 2013 winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy, Runner Up for the same award in 2014 and was the winner of Best FX Research & Strategy 2012 (at Credit Suisse).


Steve is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.


Steve has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, G10 & EM currencies, Equity Indices & Sectors and Commodities and has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum, including Central Banks, Real Money accounts, Hedge Funds and other Global Corporates.

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