An erratic consolidation on Friday to reflect the indecisive tone that has dominated since the mid-March FOMC rally, but we see a negative bias early this week.
Another recovery effort Thursday probed just above the peak from the post-FOMC rally at 1.1036 (up to 1.1053), but then yet another stall for a bearish outside pattern Thursday for an upside rejection of a broader range shift to leave risks back to the downside.
We still see an erratic consolidation theme into late March and maybe early April, but with a negative bias and look for the bear trend resumption into April.
- We see a downside bias back through 1.0855 to 1.0801, maybe for 1.0767/54.
- But above 1.0949 opens risk up towards 1.1053, which we would again look to try to cap.
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