An extremely strong recovery effort this week, now above 1.4888 has significantly eased bearish extension risks, with threat of securing a base above 1.5013.
However, with key resistance at 1.4973/95 capping, we see bearish pressures intact from the recent plunge to a new cycle low.
For Today: We see a neutral tone between 1.4885 and 1.4995 (with a negative bias towards the lower level)
Break above 1.4995 aims for 1.5013 and maybe 1.5040, which we would look to try to cap.
Break below 1.4885 aims for 1.4812 , which we would look to try to hold.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook - Downside Risks:
Downside bias is back to the new April low at 1.4565.
We see a more negative tone with the bearish threat to target 1.4500.
A break aims for key longer term supports at 1.4295/28.
What Changes This? Above 1.4983 eases bear risks; through 1.5013 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.5169.
Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum is falling and has scope to go still lower this week.
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4 Hour GBPUSD Chart