The grind lower to new cycle lows into year-end was reinforced on Friday by the plunge through our long-held target at a key 2013 swing low at 1.5430.
This as further enhanced by the Monday break through the 78.6% retrace support of the 2013-14 rally at 1.5320.
Short-term Outlook - Downside Risks:
- The threat for this week (Tuesday?) is now back through the new low at 1.5181
- Surrender here would then aim for a notable weekly swing low from 2013 at 1.5102, then a more modest level at 1.5024, just ahead of the psychological/ option target at 1.5000.
- Overshoot threat for January is down to the 2013 cycle low at 1.4813.
What Changes This? Above 1.5440/45 eases bearish risks; through 1.5621 signals a base and range theme, only shifting positive above 1.5786.
- We see a downside bias through 1.5200; break here aims back through 1.5181 to 1.5155/50.
- But above 1.5318/20 opens risk up to 1.5440/45, which we would look to try to cap.
Weekly GBPUSD Chart
3 Hour GBPUSD Chart
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