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GBPUSD bear pressures re-energized

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GBPUSD bear pressures re-energized

The grind lower to new cycle lows into year-end was reinforced on Friday by the plunge through our long-held target at a key 2013 swing low at 1.5430.

This as further enhanced by the Monday break through the 78.6% retrace support of the 2013-14 rally at 1.5320.

Short-term Outlook - Downside Risks:   

  • The threat for this week (Tuesday?) is now back through the new low at 1.5181
  • Surrender here would then aim for a notable weekly swing low from 2013 at 1.5102, then a more modest level at 1.5024, just ahead of the psychological/ option target at 1.5000.
  • Overshoot threat for January is down to the 2013 cycle low at 1.4813.

What Changes This? Above 1.5440/45 eases bearish risks; through 1.5621 signals a base and range theme, only shifting positive above 1.5786.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias through 1.5200; break here aims back through 1.5181 to 1.5155/50.
  • But above 1.5318/20 opens risk up to 1.5440/45, which we would look to try to cap.

Weekly GBPUSD Chart


3 Hour GBPUSD Chart


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Tagged in: CABLE Forex FX GBP GBPUSD

Steve Miley is The Market Chartist and has over two decades of financial market experience with him. He spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the FX Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and was previously at Merrill Lynch for 15 years; 10 years as a technical analyst, 5 years in Fixed Income sales.

He was 2013 winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy, Runner Up for the same award in 2014 and was the winner of Best FX Research & Strategy 2012 (at Credit Suisse).

Steve is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.

Steve has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, G10 & EM currencies, Equity Indices & Sectors and Commodities and has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum, including Central Banks, Real Money accounts, Hedge Funds and other Global Corporates.



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Holiday and cessation of service: 7th-23rd August 2017

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The last report will be on Friday 4th August, with service resuming on Thursday 24th August.We wish you successful trading in our absence