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S&P 500 ($ES_F) Bull Shift Rejected; Negative Bias for 2019.25, Maybe 2005.25.

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S&P 500 ($ES_F) Bull Shift Rejected; Negative Bias for 2019.25, Maybe 2005.25.

A cautious tone Friday to prod at and setback from a key 2062.0 barrier to avoid a shift to a more bullish tone.

The significant rally Thursday (driven higher by European Equity Indices) to overcome the topping line from late December and notably the spike high at 2051.75 negated the bearish theme for a shift to a neutral range theme.

We see a corrective dip as likely early this week.

Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 2062.5 and 1997.5.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 2062.5 aims higher for 2067.25 and ultimately back to the record high at 2088.75.
  • Downside: Below 1997.5 sees risk lower for 1970.25 and 1961.5.

For Today: We see a defensive consolidation theme.

  • The break below the trend line opens risk down to 2019.25, potentially to 2005.25.
  • Above 2062.5 aims for 2067.25, maybe 2082.75.
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Steve Miley is The Market Chartist and has over two decades of financial market experience with him. He spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the FX Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and was previously at Merrill Lynch for 15 years; 10 years as a technical analyst, 5 years in Fixed Income sales.

He was 2013 winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy, Runner Up for the same award in 2014 and was the winner of Best FX Research & Strategy 2012 (at Credit Suisse).

Steve is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.

Steve has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, G10 & EM currencies, Equity Indices & Sectors and Commodities and has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum, including Central Banks, Real Money accounts, Hedge Funds and other Global Corporates.



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