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S&P 500 retains bear bias, despite European Equity rallies

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S&P 500 retains bear bias, despite European Equity rallies

A surge higher Tuesday to reinforce our bull view after cautious digestion activity to start the week, which held above the trend line support, now 1.1965 to provide a strong base.

This has reinforced the prior break through a key impulse low from 2009 at 1.1981 and the psychological/ option target at 1.2000 and the previous surge above the 61.8% retrace of the entire 2009-11 sell off at 1.1655 and a key weekly failure peak from 2009 at 1.1727.

The strong rebound, rally and extension leaves risk for a further bullish extension into the 2nd half of January.

Short-term Outlook - Upside Risks

  • We see upside risk for January is to the 78.6% retrace of the entire 2009-11 sell off at 1.2280.
  • Above sees threat to a key weekly peak from 2009 at 1.2507.

Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum is corrected from OB, to see scope to go higher this week. 

What Changes This? Below 1.1792 eases bull risks; through 1.1730 signals a neutral tone, quickly shifting negative below 1.1560.  

For Today:

  • Above 1.2116 sees an upside bias for 1.2145; break here aims for 1.2190.
  • But below 1.2050/40, aims for 1.2000 and maybe trend line support (1.1965).


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Steve Miley is The Market Chartist and has over two decades of financial market experience with him. He spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the FX Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and was previously at Merrill Lynch for 15 years; 10 years as a technical analyst, 5 years in Fixed Income sales.

He was 2013 winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy, Runner Up for the same award in 2014 and was the winner of Best FX Research & Strategy 2012 (at Credit Suisse).

Steve is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.

Steve has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, G10 & EM currencies, Equity Indices & Sectors and Commodities and has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum, including Central Banks, Real Money accounts, Hedge Funds and other Global Corporates.



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