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US 10yr ($ZN_F March) bull targets

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US 10yr ($ZN_F March) bull targets

A rebound through the holiday season with another robust defence of support at 125-175 (from 125-21) has translated to a more bullish theme with the early 2015 surge (as we had anticipated) through 127-26/27 targets.

This leaves upside pressures intact for early January.

Short-term Outlook - Upside Risks:

  • We still see the bullish threat to 128-03 next in early January.
  • Above her aims through the 128-125 peak for 128-28/295
  • Overshoot risk is maybe back to the 129-285 cycle high later into January.

What Changes This? Below 126-13 eases bull pressures; through 125-295 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 125-175.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias through for 128-03, maybe even closer to 128-125.
  • But below 127-185 opens risk down to 127-11, maybe 127-015, which we would look to try to hold.

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Steve Miley is The Market Chartist and has over two decades of financial market experience with him. He spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the FX Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and was previously at Merrill Lynch for 15 years; 10 years as a technical analyst, 5 years in Fixed Income sales.

He was 2013 winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy, Runner Up for the same award in 2014 and was the winner of Best FX Research & Strategy 2012 (at Credit Suisse).

Steve is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.

Steve has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, G10 & EM currencies, Equity Indices & Sectors and Commodities and has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum, including Central Banks, Real Money accounts, Hedge Funds and other Global Corporates.



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