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US 10yr ($ZN_F March) bullish tone intact into #NFP

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US 10yr ($ZN_F March) bullish tone intact into #NFP

To view the full US 10yr Future report with screencasts, click here

The Tuesday surge through the 128-28/295 resistance area signaled a far more bullish theme into mid-month.

The subsequent dip, leaves risk back to rebound supports at 127-23/18, but we look for a rebound from here to leave upside pressures intact for mid-January.

Short-term Outlook - Upside Risks:

  • Upside risk is back to the recent peak at 12-035.
  • The threat into mid-January is to the 129-285 cycle, secular and all-time high.
  • Overshoot risk above here is then to Fibo extension targets we see through the psychological 130-00 at 130-09, 130-24 and 131-13.

What Changes This? Below 127-015 eases bull pressures; through 126-13 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 125-21.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 127-27; break here aims for the 127-23/18 area, which we would look to try to hold for a rebound
  • But above 128-12 aims for 128-185/22 and opens risk up to 129-035; break here targets 129-16.

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Steve Miley is The Market Chartist and has over two decades of financial market experience with him. He spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the FX Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and was previously at Merrill Lynch for 15 years; 10 years as a technical analyst, 5 years in Fixed Income sales.

He was 2013 winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy, Runner Up for the same award in 2014 and was the winner of Best FX Research & Strategy 2012 (at Credit Suisse).

Steve is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.

Steve has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, G10 & EM currencies, Equity Indices & Sectors and Commodities and has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum, including Central Banks, Real Money accounts, Hedge Funds and other Global Corporates.



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