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US 10yr ($ZN_F March) poised into Fed (but bull bias)

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US 10yr ($ZN_F March) poised into Fed (but bull bias)

Still a solid, but hesitant consolidation theme for the past week, back again from modest resistance at 130-11, but still closing above the 13-day EMA (now 129-08) and the trend line from latter December, now also at 129-08.

Whilst holding these support factors and having already pushed through the prior record high at 129-285 in January, we see further upside.

Short-term Outlook - Upside Risks:

  • The threat for latter January is initially to a minor area at 130-14/16
  • But we see the bias back to test the 130-30 peak.
  • Above here aims for Fibo extension targets at 131-13 and 132-11.

What Changes This? Below 128-235 eases bull pressures; through 127-31 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 127-015.

For Today: A digestion theme expected pre-FOMC. 

  • Narrow range parameters seen at 130-06 to 129-08.
  • Broader parameters at 130.14/16 to 128-235.


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 Daily US 10yr Future Chart (March)



 2 Hour US 10yr Future Chart 


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Steve Miley is The Market Chartist and has over two decades of financial market experience with him. He spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the FX Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and was previously at Merrill Lynch for 15 years; 10 years as a technical analyst, 5 years in Fixed Income sales.

He was 2013 winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy, Runner Up for the same award in 2014 and was the winner of Best FX Research & Strategy 2012 (at Credit Suisse).

Steve is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.

Steve has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, G10 & EM currencies, Equity Indices & Sectors and Commodities and has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum, including Central Banks, Real Money accounts, Hedge Funds and other Global Corporates.



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