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USDCAD Aims Through Key Weekly Peak from 2009 at 1.2507

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USDCAD Aims Through Key Weekly Peak from 2009 at 1.2507

A probe higher to another new recovery high Monday, then only a modest dip lower, maintains bullish pressures for this week.

The aggressive Wednesday surge higher  to reinforce our bull view, having overcome our next key target at the 78.6% retrace of the entire 2009-11 sell off at 1.2280

This has reinforced the prior break through a key impulse low from 2009 at 1.1981 and the psychological/ option target at 1.2000.

Short-term Outlook - Upside Risks

  • We see upside risk for latter January to a key weekly peak from 2009 at 1.2507.
  • January overshoot risk is now to the weekly high at 1.2715.
  • The Q1 threat is for 1.3000, psychological/option target and even the 2009 cycle high at 1.3063.

Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum is OB, but we see scope to go higher this week. Momentum has confirmed the new high.

What Changes This? Below 1.1933 eases bull risks; through 1.1803 signals a neutral tone, quickly shifting negative below 1.1730.  

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias through 1.2495; break here aims quickly for 1.2507 and above to 1.2570/76.
  • But below 1.2405 opens risk down to 1.2360, which we look to hold.

 

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And to view the full USDCAD report with screencasts, click here

Weekly USDCAD Chart

b2ap3_thumbnail_USDCAD1_20150127-065749_1.png

4 Hour USDCAD Chart

b2ap3_thumbnail_USDCAD2_20150127-065818_1.png

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Steve Miley is The Market Chartist and has over two decades of financial market experience with him. He spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the FX Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and was previously at Merrill Lynch for 15 years; 10 years as a technical analyst, 5 years in Fixed Income sales.


He was 2013 winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy, Runner Up for the same award in 2014 and was the winner of Best FX Research & Strategy 2012 (at Credit Suisse).


Steve is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.


Steve has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, G10 & EM currencies, Equity Indices & Sectors and Commodities and has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum, including Central Banks, Real Money accounts, Hedge Funds and other Global Corporates.

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