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$USDJPY poised into #FOMC (but bear bias)

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$USDJPY poised into #FOMC (but bear bias)

Erratic consolidation for the past week and again Tuesday with another failure back from our resistance area and we restate that "the prod at 118.86, to then setback from 118.88, maintains the bigger topping theme and leaves negative pressure intact".

Despite another bounce early this week from support at 117.27/18 and again Tuesday, we see a bias back to challenge here whilst minimally below 118.86/88 and aim back to test lower supports into late January.

Short-term Outlook - Downside Risks:

  • Looking for 118.86/88 to cap for a roll back lower for 117.27/18, then 116.92.
  • We see a more negative tone with the bearish threat through 115.85 for the key 115.56/50/45 area.
  • Surrender here would target the chart/ retrace area at 113.85/50.
  • Break here then aims for the bull gap from the start of November 2014 at 112.56/48.

What Changes This? Above 118.88 eases bear risks; through 119.97 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 120.83. 

For Today:

  • We look for barriers 118.83/86/88 to again cap for a roll back lower. We see a downside bias for 117.27/18; break here aims for key 116.92, through which targets 116.35/33
  • But above 118.83/86/88 targets 119.32, maybe 119.76.


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Steve Miley is The Market Chartist and has over two decades of financial market experience with him. He spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the FX Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and was previously at Merrill Lynch for 15 years; 10 years as a technical analyst, 5 years in Fixed Income sales.

He was 2013 winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy, Runner Up for the same award in 2014 and was the winner of Best FX Research & Strategy 2012 (at Credit Suisse).

Steve is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.

Steve has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, G10 & EM currencies, Equity Indices & Sectors and Commodities and has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum, including Central Banks, Real Money accounts, Hedge Funds and other Global Corporates.



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