Erratic consolidation for the past week and again Tuesday with another failure back from our resistance area and we restate that "the prod at 118.86, to then setback from 118.88, maintains the bigger topping theme and leaves negative pressure intact".
Despite another bounce early this week from support at 117.27/18 and again Tuesday, we see a bias back to challenge here whilst minimally below 118.86/88 and aim back to test lower supports into late January.
Short-term Outlook - Downside Risks:
- Looking for 118.86/88 to cap for a roll back lower for 117.27/18, then 116.92.
- We see a more negative tone with the bearish threat through 115.85 for the key 115.56/50/45 area.
- Surrender here would target the chart/ retrace area at 113.85/50.
- Break here then aims for the bull gap from the start of November 2014 at 112.56/48.
What Changes This? Above 118.88 eases bear risks; through 119.97 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 120.83.
- We look for barriers 118.83/86/88 to again cap for a roll back lower. We see a downside bias for 117.27/18; break here aims for key 116.92, through which targets 116.35/33
- But above 118.83/86/88 targets 119.32, maybe 119.76.
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